Sports Rant: The World Cup System is Flawed

It's football season and I have to talk football. 

I do love NFL but no, this one involves kicking, not punting.

The current world cup format stretch back all the way to 1998.  32 teams compete in 8 groups with winners and runner ups advanced to the knockout stage.  Prior to that, it's a bit messier with 3rd placed team involved but do go to Youtube if you're curious on how that works.

OK, back to the main topic, the current system.  The placing in the knockout stage is pre-determined, with 8 group winners facing of with 8 runner ups.  Why it is flawed?  The placing itself is flawed.  It's dead on, where A1 faces off with B2, B1 vs A2, C1 vs D2, D1 vs C2 and so on.

This system should theoretically work.  The group drawing places 8 top seeded teams in 8 different groups.  And they're supposed to win each group.  Theoretically, but usually they don't.

This system is flawed because, teams that already qualified to the knockout stage are given the luxury to "pick" which bracket they prefer to run.  For example, group G of this edition of world cup.  On this format, winners and runner up goes to different brackets.  Assuming they win win their round of 16 matches, they're going to face someone from group E or F.  And they can pick which bracket is more favorable.  More later after some scenarios.

First, Brazil wins group E.  Which is theoretically unfavorable to the football giants.  Since Germany messed up in group F and the Germans probably ended up as runner up in group F.  We all know E1 vs F2 in the first knockout.  Brazil vs Germany, a repeat of 7-1?  Not happening.  So Brazzil may want to draw with Serbia and let Switzerland wins the group.  They get Mexico, the Swiss gets Germany. 

Next, back to group G.  Depending on which bracket Brazil is in, England and Belgium can opt to manipulate the last game to go to their favorable bracket.  If Brazil ends up as E1, then winning group G means potentially taking on Brazil in quarter finals.  Unfavorable.  So both team will try to lose.  So they get a route without Brazil.  If Brazil did just enough to end up as E2, then England and Belgium will have a bloodbath to try to win the group.

Scenario 3, if Russia beat or drew with Uruguay in group A. Portugal and Spain in group B might be interested to draw their last group match to end up as runner up so they can get a easier pairing with the host instead of the biting Suarez. 

Pre-determining your match in the knockout is good in some sense but I hate to see teams throwing or manipulating matches so it'll be favorable to them later on. 

For example in 1998 edition of the world cup, Brazil threw their final group match so that Norway (a much stronger side) will emerge as runner up to take on Italy (as group B winner) instead of defeating Norway and matched Italy with a weaker Morocco.

I think drawing lots to determine the knockout stage pairing would be much better to avoid manipulation.  So teams will not know who they're going to get.  So it is best to win their group because theoretically group winners are a collection of stronger teams.

Some might argue this system of drawing lots might not work since some underdog team might get lucky and reach the later stage on an easier bracket.  Well, there is a chance but usually stronger nations tend to advanced to the knockout stage with maybe a few underdog nations.

Current system doesn't guarantee that either.  Take for example, in 2002 Turkey (23rd seed) made it to the semis.  Croatia (28th seed) in semis 1998.  Bitey bitey Uruguay (21st seed) to the semis in 2010 and Costa Rica (24th seed) almost beat semi finalist dutch in the quarters.

My suggestion to do the lot drawing is simply to prevent game 3 manipulation.  And to avoid imbalanced brackets, here's my suggestion on how the lot drawing will work.

1) 4 top seeded group winners in pot 1.  These nations will be placed in 4 different brackets. 
2) Remaining 4 group winners in pot 2.
3) 8 runner ups in pot 3 and will be matched up with the group winners.

Simple and without teams knowing who they're going to get in the knockouts, it is in the best interest to not finish as runner up.  So teams will try their best to win every single game, even if they have already qualified to the knockout stage.

Although we all know FIFA draws are fixed.

What do you think?  If any of these scenarios came true, you read it first from this unknown football pundit who said Mexico will beat Germany and they did.

P/S I also said France will win this edition of world cup. :P